Analysis for 2008/08/18
Going weekly for now until I'm here full time. Volume is low and I'm also partly on vacation, so I'll concentrate on AMZN and GS this week. AAPL is still not establishing a new trend and QCOM is, well, QCOM... I'm considering shifting my attention from QCOM to RIMM for my fourth.
Contents:
Analysis
Monday was a day trader's paradise! Huge day-long moves up in AAPL, AMZN, GS... Throw a dart and make money. Threw off my short setups though.
Amazon
Monday's big move up was followed by consolidation all week from nearly 92 mid-day Monday to between 85 and 89 thereafter. There's a weak setup for a short if we break below 86.00 but the weekend will surely change that. Still, let's go fishing.
Goldman Sachs
We gapped! Sure, the move above 180 on Monday was a good day trade which somewhat screwed up the short call, but the overnight analyst downgrade helped bring it right back. Unfortunately, the gap Tuesday morning made shorting difficult: instead of taking profits at 172.00, we were lucky to go short at that level for a riskier trade.
If you did short around 172, I hope you took profits Wednesday around 165 when the straight trend broke, and again around 163 late Friday.
For those of us who missed it, I can't help but notice the short setup around 162. We will need a major down trend to break 160 though, given that it's pretty much year lows, except for a superb bottom in March on 140 and another in July on 150. Best we can do is short if we trend down Monday, take profits at 160.00 and hope for another July.
Calls
- AMZN short 84.50 stoploss 85.00, take profits @ 80.00, 76.00, 70.00
- GS short 162.00 stoploss 162.50, take profits @ 160.00, 155.00
Stéphane Lavergne
commented on August 18th, 2008:
Saw an opportunity to short GS at 162.36, the day trader in me took profits @ 161.15. The rest has a break-even stop at 162.00 for now. (Even though the day trader in me is SCREAMING to get out in this consolidation.)
In AMZN, I thought I could day trade it short a bit, but it's too noisy. 84.50 was too low for the call though, I'm in at 85.48 waiting to set a break-even stop. Alright, close enough, setting break-even stop at 85.40.
Stéphane Lavergne
commented on August 20th, 2008:
Nice continuation today. Updating stops to AMZN at 83.50 and GS at 160.00.
So far a potential for 2.5% on GS and 4.7% on AMZN. If tomorrow breaks the trend I'll gladly exit AMZN here, as a break of 80.00 doesn't seem all that probable. For GS, I'll likely exit at 155.00 if the trend stalls at all.
Stéphane Lavergne
commented on August 20th, 2008:
Reversal Wednesday? Stop triggered on GS unfortunately, so I'm out at 160.00 very far from the day low around 155.25. I say "unfortunately" because the 60min chart still shows a perfect down trend from 166 to 156.
On AMZN, the trend stalled today; I will liquidate my position at the first opportunity. Barring any gaps, I'm looking for 81.50 but I'll take 82.00 if I have to.
Stéphane Lavergne
commented on August 21st, 2008:
Alright, the open was rather easy, at least at my brokerage. I'm out of AMZN at 81.60. It looked like going down for 2-3 minutes then clearly the trend was back up short-term. The down trend I traded is indeed over.
So, GS x 100 short 162.36 to 160.00 (+$236), AMZN x 200 short 85.48 to 81.60 (+$776). So I'm up $1012 for the week despite a clumsy entry AND exit on GS. Not bad at all.
Stéphane Lavergne
commented on August 21st, 2008:
I forgot to add: to all those who are still short GS today at 153.00, congratulations. New analyst downgrades today, the trend still looks mouth-watering on the 60min chart. Too late for me personally though, so I'm not going to make further calls on this swing. An eventual reversal might be nice.