Analysis for 2008/08/08

posted on August 9th, 2008

First report in a long while. I'm focussing on AAPL, AMZN, GS and QCOM at the moment. I will increase my horizon as I get comfortable with the process.

Analysis

Apple Computers

I noticed a double bottom in the up trend mid-day on the 6th. That puppy didn't break at the open on the 7th although it did later that day. The trend appears to have merely slowed down, although since we've been trending down since May I wouldn't hunt for a longer-term long trade here. Nothing very exciting unless someone went bottom-fishing at 155.00 at the open on the 5th. No call here until this up trend dries up.

Amazon

Awesome day trade opportunity here today. Ample opportunities to go long between 76.75 and 77.50. I'm not a big fan of keeping new positions over a weekend so we'd be looking at an exit mid-afternoon when the intraday trend got tired. Good for at least 3 points.

Longer term, we need at least another day to see whether 80.00 holds. If we break back down, we're looking at 75.00 then 66.00 for support.

Goldman Sachs

A weak 5-day down trend broke today. It may take a day or two before we get another short out of it. I expect we'll be testing 171.00 again within a week or so, and if we break it, we're looking at 160.00 and 152.00 for support.

Calls

Note that when I specify a stoploss equal to the entry price, it means that we're fishing for an explosive move through our entry price. If it comes back, we're out. These entry calls are best executed manually, not with stop-limits.

AMZN short 80.00 stoploss 80.00, take profits @ 75.00, 70.00, 66.00
GS short 175.00 stoploss 176.00, take profits @ 172.00, 160.00

Stéphane Lavergne

commented on August 11th, 2008:

Well, as it turns out this morning was all about day trading on the long side.

I knew I should've stayed at the office today! :P